Americans’ election confidence includes a sharp contrast ahead of the November 3 midterms: 61% say the elections will be conducted fairly and accurately, but 70% lack confidence that President Donald Trump will accept the results if Republicans lose, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
The findings, reported October 20, measure public expectations before the election. They do not establish that voting will be disrupted, that Republicans will lose or that Trump has made a final decision about how to respond.
Only 28% of adults expressed confidence that Trump would accept a Republican loss. Half of all adults said they had no confidence at all, while another 20% expressed limited confidence.
What the election confidence questions measured
The survey asked about election fairness separately from whether political leaders would accept defeat. That distinction allows respondents to trust election administration while doubting how a president or party leadership might react.
For Trump, the confident group included 10% who were very confident and 18% who were somewhat confident. The published table lists 1% as skipping the question; rounded percentages do not total exactly 100%.
On whether the midterms would be conducted fairly and accurately, 61% were confident, 38% were not confident and 1% skipped the question. Those are national adult estimates, rather than the views of every individual American.
A separate measure of election confidence asked about accurate vote counting. On that measure, 65% of adults expressed confidence, compared with 72% of registered voters, ABC News reported.
Party differences shape expectations about Trump
ABC News reported that 94% of Democrats and 77% of independents lacked confidence that Trump would accept the results if Republicans lost. Republicans were more optimistic: 63% expressed confidence that he would.
However, Republican confidence was not unanimous. The Post reported that 36% of Republicans lacked confidence in Trump’s acceptance of a loss.
The partisan divide was much smaller on election administration. Seventy percent of Democrats and 67% of Republicans expressed confidence that the midterms would be conducted fairly and accurately, compared with 51% of independents.
The survey also asked about Democratic Party leaders. Overall, 61% of adults were confident they would accept a loss and 38% were not. Another 1% skipped that question.
These comparisons concern expectations about different political actors. They do not prove that either party will behave in a particular way after voting ends.
How the poll was conducted
Ipsos conducted the survey October 9–13 among 2,545 U.S. adults, including 2,032 registered voters. The Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos jointly sponsored and funded the research.
Interviews took place online in English and Spanish through Ipsos’ probability-based KnowledgePanel. Members are recruited using residential addresses, and households without internet access receive a tablet and service.
The full adult sample has a reported sampling margin of plus or minus two percentage points. However, the fairness and vote-counting questions were each asked of a different random half sample, with 1,271–1,274 adults and a margin of plus or minus 2.8 points.
Readers can inspect the original questionnaire and methodology. Using the full-sample margin for every question would understate uncertainty for those half-sample findings.
The sample includes adults who are not registered to vote, so these headline figures should not be relabelled as registered-voter results.
Ipsos weighted the results to population benchmarks. Sampling margins do not account for every possible source of survey error, and opinions can change after interviews are completed.
What happens after voters cast their ballots
The Federal Election Commission explains that elections are primarily governed by state law and administered at the state and local level. State election offices certify results; the FEC administers campaign-finance law.
Congressional elections determine representation and control of each chamber. All 435 House seats and roughly one-third of Senate seats are regularly contested, according to USAGov.
Hourly Times’ earlier coverage of the contest for House control explains the implications for congressional leadership.
The election confidence findings remain a snapshot of attitudes. The next regularly scheduled federal general election is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
