Trump approval fell to 31% in a Reuters/Ipsos survey published October 19, the lowest reading of either of his presidential terms in that polling series, as economic dissatisfaction weighed on the campaign before the November 3 midterms.
The nationwide survey found 66% disapproved of President Donald Trump’s job performance. Reuters reported that approval was one percentage point below its reading two weeks earlier.
The findings describe public opinion during October 16–19. They do not establish how many congressional seats Republicans will lose or whether Democrats will gain control of either chamber.
What the Trump approval result measures
The headline figure covers U.S. adults, rather than only registered or likely voters. That distinction matters because the public surveyed and the electorate that ultimately participates are different populations.
In the same poll, approval among registered voters was 34%. The 31% adult result and the registered-voter figure should not be used interchangeably.
The original Ipsos questionnaire and results distinguish overall job approval from personal favorability and assessments of individual policies. These measures answer different questions, even when they concern the same president.
The record-low description refers to the Reuters/Ipsos series. It should not be read as a claim that no other polling organization has ever recorded a lower number for Trump.
Likewise, a one-point difference between surveys is smaller than the reported margin for either individual adult estimate. It does not, on its own, demonstrate a statistically clear decline over those two weeks.
Economic dissatisfaction shapes the campaign
The survey found 68% disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy. That included 37% of Republican respondents, indicating that criticism extended beyond people who identify with the opposition party.
Reuters linked the political pressure to household concerns about expensive gasoline following the war with Iran. That reporting provides context for the campaign, but the survey cannot isolate how much any single issue caused a respondent’s overall judgment.
In a separate analysis published October 17, Ipsos identified living costs as a particular weakness for Trump. It also described a decline in the intensity of Republican support and weaker approval across several demographic groups.
Those findings help explain why economic messaging matters to both parties. They do not mean every dissatisfied Republican will vote Democratic, or that every person unhappy with prices will participate in the election.
Trump has continued to present an optimistic campaign message. Reuters reported that, at an October 20 rally in Greenville, North Carolina, he argued Republicans could outperform expectations in the coming elections.
How Ipsos conducted the survey
The Trump approval finding comes from a national sample of 1,679 adults age 18 and older. Ipsos conducted the online, English-language interviews through its probability-based KnowledgePanel.
The study’s published methodology describes weighting for age and gender, race and ethnicity, education, geography, household income, previous presidential vote and party identification. Weighting adjusts the sample to specified population benchmarks.
The reported margin of sampling error for all adults is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Subgroup results have larger margins, so comparisons involving smaller groups require additional care.
A margin of error does not cover every possible source of survey error. Question wording, nonresponse and changes in opinion between interviews and Election Day also matter when readers interpret a poll.
What voters will decide in November
Midterm elections determine congressional representation and party control. All 435 House seats are contested, alongside the regularly scheduled Senate contests and any special elections.
The Trump approval number is therefore part of the political environment surrounding local races. It is not a nationwide vote to remove or reelect the president, whose office is not on the midterm ballot.
Hourly Times’ earlier coverage of an AP-NORC approval survey offers additional background. Its results come from a different poll and population and should not be treated as an earlier wave of Reuters/Ipsos polling.
For readers assessing the campaign, the useful distinction is between a dated estimate of public opinion and actual election returns. The survey documents substantial dissatisfaction; ballots will determine who represents voters in the next Congress.
